Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is essential to global precipitation patterns and has major socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Yet its future position remains uncertain. Here, using reanalysis data, Earth system model simulations, and targeted sensitivity experiments, we assess risks of the ITCZ crossing any thresholds and find only about one-third of CMIP6 models with a more northern ITCZ mean position-closer to the observed climatological state-simulate a southward ITCZ shift consistent with recent observations. This shift requires a substantial weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), while the warmer base state alone is insufficient to push it farther north. Furthermore, a collapsed AMOC pushes the ITCZ into the Southern Hemisphere without a warmer base state, and toward the equator when combined with a warmer base state-both cases leading to significant changes in global rainfall patterns. These findings imply that the observed southward ITCZ migration over recent decades is consistent with a weakened AMOC, within the context of coupled atmosphere-ocean interactions.
Source: Nature Communications
Authors: Yaru Guo, Aixue Hu, Gerald A. Meehl, Maria J. Molina, Hui Li, Katinka Bellomo, Nan Rosenbloom
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $6,990
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, Dipartimenti di Eccellenza, Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Natural Environment Research Council, Biological and Environmental Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Awards: G1079818582, G1088636562, G1143651532, G125460123, G1286236842, G138090931, G14554683, G1837554925, G1863003419, G2145270357, The Management and Operation of the National Center for Atmoshperic Research (NCAR), G2506945562, G2510423872, G2812390658, G2981564522, G2988778103, G3083819904, G3137522415, G3571461640, G3633705070, G3669113783, G3861279505, G40072227, G5321382714, G5558627913, G5653134238, G5924610485, G613759197, G6733576948, G7354628648, G7560550554, G8163035529, G8326222658, G969889393, G991281326
OpenAlex ID: W7161376557