Tracking the Erosion of Democratic Norms: Panel Evidence Spanning the 2024 US Presidential Election
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Most citizens of democracies express commitment to democratic norms that preclude behaviors such as pardoning political allies and ignoring judicial rulings. But what happens when leaders at the highest level engage in such behaviors? Do people stand firm and condemn such behaviors regardless of party? Or do their commitments to democratic norms weaken? This study provides the first multi-wave panel evidence tracking U.S. citizens’ reactions to concrete, real-world episodes of elites violating democratic norms. Prior to the 2024 US Presidential election, we identified 15 specific potential violations of democratic norms. In a six-wave survey from October 2024 through June 2025, we tracked Republicans’ and Democrats’ attitudes towards violations of each of these norms, triggering new survey waves as Presidents Biden and Trump committed potential norm violations. We find evidence that support for democratic norms substantially weakens after a co-partisan president commits an apparent democratic norm violation. Conversely, support for democratic norms is either unaffected or strengthened after an out-party president’s apparent norm violation. Approximately 50% of partisans became more permissive of their own party’s violations, and a similar share became less permissive of out-partisan violations. Together, these responses capture an erosion of democratic norms marked by growing inter- and intra-party polarization.
Authors: Lucas Woodley, Joshua D. Greene
Language: English
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7161625536