Work

Subpolar North Atlantic heat flux drives projected U.S. East Coast sea-level trend in a climate model

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Dynamic sea level along the United States (U.S.) East Coast has risen in recent decades and is projected to continue rising throughout the 21st century, according to most climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). However, the mechanisms by which ocean surface forcing drives this rise remain unclear. Understanding these processes is critical for improving sea-level projections. The adjoint sensitivity-based attribution method from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) project provides a means to establish causal relationships between sea level and ocean forcings. Here, we demonstrate that by convolving ocean forcings from a CMIP6 model with ECCO adjoint sensitivities of sea level to these forcings, we can reconstruct sea-level variations along the U.S. East Coast from 2000 to 2100 in the CMPI6 model. We identify subpolar North Atlantic surface heat flux as the key driver of the long-term trend, while wind stress dominates interannual-to-decadal variability.

Source: Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03632-7

Authors: Ou Wang, Tong Lee, Thomas Frederikse, Ichiro Fukumori, Ian Fenty

Institutions: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, University of California, Los Angeles

Language: English

Topic: Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes

Subfield: Oceanography

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life below water

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,490