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Aerobic capacity at age 34 predicts arterial stiffness in age 63, independent of classical and advanced lipid-related cardiovascular risk factors: a longitudinal cohort study

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality worldwide, with arterial stiffness being an important predictor of cardiovascular mortality. This study aimed to examine in the Swedish longitudinal cohort of males and females (SPAF-1958) whether aerobic capacity measured at early- (34 years) and mid-adulthood (52 years) can predict arterial stiffness assessed by pulse wave velocity later in life (63 years). Further, we determined whether this association is modified by traditional cardiovascular risk factors such as obesity, smoking, blood pressure, advanced lipoprotein profiles and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) function determined as cholesterol efflux capacity. Multiple regression analysis revealed that a higher aerobic capacity at ages 34 (B = - 0.04, P = 0.002) and 52 (B = - 0.04, P = 0.005) significantly predicted lower arterial stiffness at age 63, independent of obesity, smoking, blood pressure, HDL, and HDL-cholesterol efflux capacity. In contrast, lipoprotein profiles and HDL-mediated cholesterol efflux at age 52 were not associated with arterial stiffness at age 63 (P > 0.05). These findings suggest that maintaining aerobic capacity from early adulthood can reduce arterial stiffness and cardiovascular risk in later life, independently of traditional and contemporary cardiovascular factors. This study emphasizes the need for further research on lifestyle modifications to enhance cardiovascular health.

Source: Scientific Reports

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-52389-8