Work

AFLA-hazelnut: a model for the prediction of Aspergillus flavus infection and aflatoxin contamination in Hazelnuts

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Hazelnut ( Corylus avellana L .) is a high-value crop for the global confectionery industry, yet its production chain is increasingly challenged by aflatoxin contamination caused by Aspergillus flavus . In Azerbaijan, one of the world’s leading hazelnut producers, recurrent exceedances of European aflatoxin limits have resulted in economic and trade constraints. In this context, predictive models represent valuable decision-support tools to anticipate periods of elevated contamination risk and to support timely pre-harvest management strategies. This study presents AFLA-hazelnut, a process-based, weather-driven model developed to assess the risk of A. flavus infection and aflatoxin B₁ (AFB₁) contamination in hazelnut orchards. The approach integrates a phenological sub-model for hazelnut development, based on literature, with a fungal sub-model that simulates infection according to temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and kernel water activity (a w ). A hazelnut-specific a w curve was developed to describe kernel water dynamics during the susceptible reproductive stage and to support hourly simulations.The model produces two outputs: an infection risk index (IH) and an aflatoxin risk index (AFB1-I). Model outputs were evaluated using independent pre-harvest field data. IH showed a coherent association with observed fungal occurrence, indicating that the model captures biologically meaningful gradients of infection pressure. In contrast, the limited number of aflatoxin-positive samples did not allow quantitative validation of the AFB1-I index, which remains supported by indirect evidence and model structure. AFLA-hazelnut represents the first process-based framework developed to describe A. flavus infection dynamics and support aflatoxin risk assessment in hazelnuts.

Source: Microbial Risk Analysis

DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2026.100376

Authors: Alessia Casu, Marco Camardo Leggieri, Paola Battilani

Institution: Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Language: English

Topic: Mycotoxins in Agriculture and Food

Subfield: Plant Science

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDG: Zero hunger

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,790