Work

Optimizing grain–ecology landscapes configuration: identifying nonlinear trade-offs and threshold effects in ecosystem services

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Under the global challenges of food security and the strategic need for “storing grain in the land,” it is crucial to coordinate cultivated land protection, capacity enhancement, and the “grain-ecology” balance. In most major grain-producing areas, the production intensity is approaching environmental carrying capacity thresholds, resulting in significant trade-off relationships between grain production (GP) and ecological benefits, yet their non-linear dynamic mechanisms still lack a quantitative framework. Taking the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain—a major grain-producing region in China—as a case study, the Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) approach is applied to measure the non-linear trade-off relationships between GP and ecological benefits (Water Purification [WP], Carbon Storage [CS], Soil Retention [SR], and Habitat Quality [HQ]) and to identify the thresholds of the trade-off boundaries. Furthermore, the System Dynamics (SD) and PLUS models are combined to evaluate the optimal scenarios for mitigating the trade-off relationships between GP and ecological benefits. During the study period, trade-off states were primarily distributed in the central and eastern regions. The thresholds for CS, SR, and HQ decreased by 48.64%, 8.06%, and 8.28%, respectively, indicating a surging pressure from agricultural development on ecological benefits. Vegetation coverage and topographic slope emerged as key variables influencing the changes in trade-off states. The Ecological Protection Priority scenario increases the capacity to maintain synergistic relationships between GP and WP/SR. Under the Cultivated Land Protection Priority scenario, the negative disturbances on CS and HQ caused by the increase in GP capacity are effectively alleviated. By combining the PPF-SD-PLUS methods, this study integrates a research framework of “Non-linear trade-offs—Carrying capacity thresholds—Scenario optimization,” which expands the application boundaries of the PPF method. It not only provides a method for optimizing the trade-off boundaries between GP and ecological benefits but also offers a reproducible resource allocation scheme to implement the dual goals of food security and high-quality ecological development.

Source: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications

DOI: 10.1057/s41599-026-07413-7

Authors: Yufeng Ang, Yuchun Wang, Can Zhang, Menghao Zhu, Yingying Zhang, Shaohua Wu

Institutions: Anhui Jianzhu University, China University of Geosciences, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics

Language: English

Topic: Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Life on land, Zero hunger, Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,890