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Anatomie du Parti libéral du Québec: plus de 50 ans de clientèles électorale. Qui appuyaient et appuient encore les libéraux du Québec

Year: 2013
Type: dissertation
Abstract: From Maître chez nous to Pour le Québec, from Jean Lesage to Jean Charest, the Quebec liberal party (QLP) has evolved through decades adapting itself vis-à-vis its opponents to better face them in partisan bull ring. The liberal electoral clientele might have also changed through time. Lemieux, in 1993, has analyzed the QLP as being one of the strongest party of the twentieth century while generating the parties that will compete against it from dissident fringes. How did the liberal supports have evolved between 1960 and 2012 while the party is still occupying an important place in the party system? This question is answered by the use of the marginal effects of binary logistic regressions and of two models of multivariate analysis. For this purpose, we use sociodemographic variables and one attitudinal variable (the support for sovereignty) from different academic datasets: 3 have been made by Maurice Pinard in the 60s and 70s, then 8 made by the Canadian Election Studies team and the 3 last done by Éric Bélanger and Richard Nadeau specifically on the Quebec elections. We find that the QLP strength is situated in three principal niches: Anglophones, allophones and religious people (no matter their religion). They systematically support the liberals since 1960. Moreover, we found a lifecycle effect: the more people are getting older, the more they vote liberal. We can find the same relation with people arriving to their retirement. The generational thesis does not survive to the multivariate analysis, but pre-baby-boomers seem to systematically support the liberals. The linguistic divide is stronger than expected because the effect stays significant even after the introduction of the sovereignty variable. These strengths also represent vulnerabilities that the party will have to face sooner or later.
DOI: 10.82308/16931
Language: French
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7162013120
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