Stopping the spread: The spatial diffusion of Mexican organized crime and their implications for targeted intervention
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: This study examines spatial diffusion patterns of organized crime (OC) groups across Mexico from 2000 to 2018. We analyze whether OC diffusion follows contagious, hierarchical, or spatio-hierarchical patterns. Using data on nine OC groups, we employ spatial event history models to compare diffusion mechanisms while considering geographic proximity and population hierarchy. Our findings show hierarchical diffusion dominates, followed by spatio-hierarchical patterns. Contagious spread less frequently. Models reveal differences between groups, with some relying on proximity-based diffusion, while others prioritizing high-density hubs. Interventions should match diffusion patterns, where perimeter containment suits contagious spread, while preventive cordons counter hierarchical expansion.
Source: CrimRxiv
Authors: Carlos Vilalta, Gustavo Fondevila
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7162083958
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