Work

Mapping optimal cultivation zones for Carthamus tinctorius L. in Xinjiang based on habitat and quality suitability

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: As an important medicinal plant, safflower is widely grown in Xinjiang, though its quality varies across regions. Therefore, the suitable cultivation area of safflower was predicted by combining the distribution of suitable habitat and quality suitability. The biomod2 was employed to forecast the suitable habitat of safflower, with ROC, TSS, and KAPPA values of 0.976, 0.882, and 0.828 respectively, indicating high prediction accuracy. The suitable habitats of safflower in Xinjiang were mainly distributed in the north under the current and future climate scenarios (ssp126–2050s, ssp585–2050s, ssp126–2090s, ssp585–2090s), with areas of 218,706, 90,877, 87,555, 83,914, and 93,960 km 2 , respectively. The suitable habitats in the future would decrease sharply. Currently, key areas included Altay (49,383 km 2 ), Bortala (13,113 km 2 ), Changji (34,456 km 2 ), Yili (25,334 km 2 ), Tacheng (42,280 km 2 ), and Kashi (14,922 km 2 ). Precipitation seasonally (bio15, 25.73%) mainly affected the distribution of suitable habitats, followed by soil organic matter content (som, 13.66%). The content of hydroxysafflor yellow A in safflower filaments was significantly correlated with environmental factors (adj R 2 = 0.363, p < 0.01), with climate factors (24.38%) more impactful. The quality suitability of safflower in central and southern Xinjiang was higher. Currently, suitable cultivation areas were scattered but in central-southern Xinjiang; they would disappear in the future. This study will offer scientific guidance for the selection and standardized planting of safflower in suitable cultivation areas in Xinjiang.

Source: Industrial Crops and Products

DOI: 10.1016/j.indcrop.2026.123486