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Firing on all cylinders: decomposing regional growth dynamics in South Africa

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The poor performance of the South African economy has been widely analysed, yet this disguises considerable internal variation, both between sectors and regions. Most disaggregated analysis focuses on national industry trends and neglects the role of geography. We undertake a shift-share analysis with multifactor partitioning to decompose the growth performance of provinces into nationwide industry and region-specific (or "place-based" shares between 1995 and 2018. The main finding is that place based effects explain as much of the variation in growth as nationwide industry effects in most provinces. This implies that the economic capabilities of each region need careful consideration as part of national growth strategies and reforms.

Source: Human Science Research Council SA

DOI: 10.14749/32365410

Author: Human Sciences Research Council

Language: English

Topic: Regional Economic and Spatial Analysis

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Decent work and economic growth, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: green

Funder: Human Sciences Research Council

OpenAlex ID: W7162125609

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