Work

Driving factors and peak pathways for production-based embodied carbon emission generated by China's light industry international trade

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: China has set clear carbon reduction targets, yet the key driving factors and carbon peaking pathways of production-based embodied carbon emissions (PECE) in the international trade of China's light industry remain insufficiently identified. To fill these gaps, this study employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index with Additive Decomposition model based on a two-level decomposition method to separate five driving factors that influence PECE in China's light industries, and used an extended Markov model to forecast PECE trends from 2023 to 2030. The results show that carbon emission intensity and export scale are the dominant drivers. Among 16 sub-industries, I3 presents a prominent emission reduction effect, while I7 is the main contributor to emission growth. Among five emission reduction scenarios, the coordinated development scenario (A5) performs best, with PECE peaking at 1745.54 Mt in 2025. These findings provide empirical support for optimizing trade strategies and advancing the low-carbon structural adjustment of China's light industry.

Source: Energy Strategy Reviews

DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102276

Authors: Chenchen Wang, Laijun Zhao, George N. Papageorgiou, Juntao Zhen, Youfeng Cheng

Institutions: University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, European University Cyprus

Language: English

Topic: Environmental Impact and Sustainability

Subfield: Environmental Engineering

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Responsible consumption and production

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $4,180