Work

Emergency dynamics modeling with an agent-based framework: Active shooter scenario case study

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Modeling human-induced emergencies requires a structured representation of interactions among occupants, hazards, and built environments. While existing simulation approaches provide important insights, behavioral processes, hazard progression, and architectural conditions are often examined separately. This study develops a parameterized agent-based modeling framework that integrates heterogeneous occupant behaviors, hazard dynamics, and environmental configurations within a commercially available crowd-simulation platform to extend its usability within the academic and professional communities. The framework comprises environmental modeling, agent definition, interaction logic, risk evaluation, and simulation execution, enabling systematic configuration of behavioral rules and scenario parameters through customized scripting. An Active Shooter Incident (ASI) in a school building is simulated as a demonstrative case study to illustrate the framework's capability to configure and test emergency scenarios under different behavioral, hazard and environmental assumptions. Using the framework, the study examines the effects of classroom occupancy, door width, and door-locking mechanisms on occupant safety, evaluated using a token-based high-risk metric and factorial statistical analysis. Results indicate that higher occupancy increases exposure risk, timely door locking substantially improves safety outcomes, and the influence of door width is context-dependent. The consistency of these patterns with prior research supports the behavioral plausibility of the modeling approach. Overall, the study contributes a practical and extensible framework for operationalizing human–hazard–environment interactions in similar agent-based simulations and for generating scenario-specific insights to support design and preparedness strategies in human-induced emergency contexts.

Source: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106226