Spatio-temporal modeling of an insect vector distribution
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: The pinewood nematode is a dangerous organism for the health of Pine forests and has already demonstrated its impact in Portugal and Spain. This organism was recently detected (November 2025) in France. It can spread over long distances (e.g., through wood transport) or short distances via dispersal of its airborne insect vector (about fifteen km), Monochamus galloprovincialis . The spatiotemporal distribution of the population of this insect vector is poorly understood in France. In this study, we propose to estimate the Monochamus population using official trapping data, which, however, are distributed heterogeneously in space and time. Spatiotemporal modeling is based on two complementary Bayesian approaches (an INLA-based generalized additive model, and a mecanistic-statistical approach), and integrates environmental covariates as well as laboratory-derived experimental data about the insect vector. The results provide estimates and predictions of the spatio-temporal distribution of Monochamus galloprovincialis in France. The species distribution varies according to environmental conditions and biological characteristics of the insect; the population dynamics thus can be estimated at all points in space and time. Prior to this study, no knowledge were available on the spatiotemporal distribution of the insect vector population; consequently, these results enable improvements to surveillance protocols. They will improve the pinewood nematode surveillance plan to better monitor free zones and buffer zones around the outbreak.
Authors: Marie Grosdidier, Emily Walker
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Life on land
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7162450052