Work

A strengthened and southward-shifted westerly jet mitigates warming-induced drying across Asian drylands

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The Eurasian Subtropical Westerly Jet (ESWJ), a key component of the Eurasia circulation system, has weakened in summer since 1979 due to uneven aerosol emissions. Its future evolution under human activities, including clean air policies, remains uncertain yet critical for climate adaptation in mid-latitude Asian drylands. Using multiscenario projections, we show that the ESWJ is projected to reverse its historical weakening trend and turn to strengthen during 2025-2100. This intensification arises from both increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and declining anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosol reduction primarily triggers the transition from weakening to strengthening, already emerging around 2010, while GHG forcing additionally induces a southward displacement. These circulation changes enhance dynamic moisture advection into Central Asia, partially offsetting the "dry-get-drier" paradigm and resulting in limited changes in regional water availability. While recent studies have emphasized the warming effects of aerosol reduction, our findings highlight the critical role of circulation dynamics in shaping regional hydroclimatic security.

Source: Science Advances

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aed7890

Authors: Jie Jiang, Tianjun Zhou

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $4,500