Work

The First Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges Scenarios up to 2150 CE for the Coasts of Monterosso and Vernazza, Cinque Terre National Park (Liguria, Italy)

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The UNESCO World Heritage coastal zone of Cinque Terre (Liguria, northern Italy) is increasingly threatened by ongoing sea-level rise. To assess expected sea levels up to 2150 CE under the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), we carried out a first evaluation of potential coastal flooding for Monterosso and Vernazza under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), integrating high-resolution topography and bathymetry, geodetic data, historical tide-gauge evidence, and storm-surge modeling. The historical sea-level analysis indicates a non-stationary rising trend for the Ligurian sector. Relative sea-level rise (RSLR) projections were computed for SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, including local land subsidence, and were used to map the potential inundated areas for 2030, 2050, 2100, and 2150 CE. In 2150, projected RSLR is expected to range from 0.60 m to 1.17 m, corresponding to flooded surfaces of 9931 m2 and 22,079 m2 in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Because site-specific long-term run-up observations are not available for formal calibration at the two study sites, the storm-surge simulations are interpreted as scenario-based hazard envelopes. Even within this framework, storm surges with return times of 1 and 100 years in the SSP5-8.5 scenario cause maximum wave run-up in the range of 5.12 m and 13.36 m. The results show that narrow pocket beaches and low-elevation harbor areas are the most critical receptors and that adaptation measures should focus on quay elevation, drainage/backwater management, and the protection of transport and tourism infrastructures.

Source: Remote Sensing

DOI: 10.3390/rs18111735