Type: dissertation
Abstract: This dissertation examines the impacts of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and their interaction effects on international trade flows of both agricultural and non-agricultural products.Utilizing panel data from 19 member countries spanning 2003 to 2023, this study employs an augmented gravity model estimated through Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood and generalized estimating equations to evaluate the influence of these agreements.The findings indicate that while the individual effects of RCEP and CPTPP on trade flows are not statistically significant, their combined impact significantly enhances agricultural exports among overlapping member countries.These outcomes underscore the strategic importance of dual memberships, such as those of Vietnam and Malaysia, in maximizing the benefits of economic integration.The results emphasize the value of overlapping memberships in fostering trade liberalization and economic development, even when these agreements arise from differing political motivations.The study further explores the role of economic integration agreements and climate factors in agri-food trade within the Asia-Pacific region.By analyzing bilateral trade data from 2003 to 2022, the study reveals that domestic trade flows are significantly influenced by international trade dynamics, underscoring the effects of globalization on domestic markets.Importantly, the analysis demonstrates that Partial Scope Agreements (PSAs) and Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) significantly contribute to the growth of agri-food trade.However, climate factors, particularly temperature distance, pose considerable challenges to trade.Temperature distance is identified as a primary barrier, significantly inhibiting agricultural trade, while precipitation distance exerts a minor effect.The findings also indicate that overlapping members of RCEP and CPTPP derive more substantial benefits than nonoverlapping members, highlighting the strategic advantage of dual membership in trade agreements for achieving enhanced economic gains.The third major conclusion of this research addresses the differentiated impacts of EIAs, basic Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), and common WTO membership across various agricultural sectors.The study assesses the specific effects of these agreements on the trade of 26 agricultural products, uncovering significant variations based on product characteristics, supply chain configurations, and market dynamics.For instance, fresh vegetables and II fruits benefit substantially from WTO membership, while the positive influence of EIAs on fruit trade strengthens over time.Conversely, staple grains like rice exhibit limited responsiveness to trade agreements, except for oilseeds, which benefit from basic FTAs and EIAs in the long term.The analysis also underscores the critical role of cold chain logistics, particularly for meat, eggs, and other perishable products.Effective cold chain systems are essential for maintaining product quality and ensuring competitiveness in international markets.Processed foods, including beverages and tobacco, demonstrate unique responses to trade policies and climate factors.The findings suggest that beverage trade is negatively impacted by EIAs and WTO membership, while tobacco trade is influenced by public health considerations embedded in trade agreements and local consumer preferences.Climate distance, particularly temperature and humidity, exerts a significant long-term inhibitory effect on the trade of most agricultural products.However, some products, such as oilseeds, respond positively to changes in precipitation distance, while beverage trade is enhanced by increased humidity, indicating that climatic suitability for storage and transport is a crucial factor.In the context of recent global uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts, rising trade protectionism, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study provides critical insights for policymakers in the Asia-Pacific region.The role of EIAs is identified as pivotal for advancing agricultural trade liberalization; however, the benefits of these agreements may take years to fully materialize.This delay underscores the importance of strategic patience in economic policy, as the cumulative impacts of trade agreements can significantly benefit agricultural markets over the long term.Moreover, climate change remains a pressing challenge for agricultural trade.Temperature distance exerts a significant long-term negative influence on agri-food trade, emphasizing the necessity for environmental policy interventions.Measures such as promoting renewable energy, increasing investments in green technologies, and implementing conservation practices, including reforestation and wetland restoration, are crucial for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on trade.These environmental policies not only protect ecosystems but also catalyze agri-food trade by enhancing related sectors such as logistics, boosting rural employment, and reducing poverty in rural areas.Ultimately, these initiatives align with the broader objectives of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), fostering inclusive economic growth and environmental sustainability.Overall, this study highlights the intricate nature of agricultural trade amid international agreements and climate change.It advocates for customized trade policies that cater to the unique needs of different agricultural III sectors rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.Policymakers should focus not only on reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers but also on enhancing infrastructure, harmonizing regulations, and strengthening cold chain logistics to promote sustainable agricultural trade.Building climate resilience and ensuring supply chain robustness are vital for maintaining the stability and security of agricultural trade, particularly in the context of increasing climate challenges.These insights are crucial for designing effective trade promotion strategies that address the distinct challenges of various agricultural sectors, thereby fostering a resilient, inclusive, and competitive agricultural trade environment across the Asia-Pacific region.
Author: Kong, Qingtun
Language: English
Topic: Global trade and economics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7163305586