Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Understanding HIV transmission in densely populated urban settings is essential to mitigate ongoing epidemic spread. We present a comprehensive analysis of recent HIV transmission dynamics in Greater Mexico City, one of the world’s largest metropolitan areas comprising Mexico City and neighbouring municipalities of the State of Mexico. Drawing from over 7,000 complete pol gene sequences representing around 50% of new cases reported between 2019 and 2022 within the study region, we reconstructed the transmission network based on pairwise genetic distance. We identified ten large transmission clusters exhibiting sustained growth up to the most recent sampling period. We further analysed paired genetic and high- resolution human mobility data using an integrated phylogeographic approach. We observed a heterogeneous pattern of viral spread across the region, supported by an extensive mixing at a wider geographic scale. Across Greater Mexico City, displaying a high population density, HIV transmission is minimally spatially constrained, a pattern likely fuelled by intense human mobility. Thus, population movement weakens isolation by distance in large urban areas even for a chronic infection that is sexually and vertically transmitted. We demonstrate the value of integrating large-scale genetic, epidemiological, and mobility data to resolve contemporary HIV transmission dynamics in densely populated urban settings.
Source: Research Square
Authors: Marina Escalera-Zamudio, Eduardo Lopez Ortiz, Claudia Garcia Morales, Erika Cruz-Bonilla, Shaday Guerrero Flores, Steven Weaver, Margarita Matias Florentino, Daniela Tapia Trejo, Vanessa Davila Conn, Roberto Cardenas Porras, Eduardo Zarza Sanchez, Silvia del Arenal Sanchez, Jorge Gutierrez Soto, Karina Nava Memije, Jessica Monreal Flores, Alejandro Guzman, Rebecca Garcia Mendiola, Patricia Iracheta, Veronica Ruiz Gonzalez, Veronica Quiroz Morales, Israel Macias Gonzalez, Manuel Becerril Rodriguez, Raul Cruz Flores, Andrea Gonzalez Rodriguez, Dulce Lopez Sanchez, Miroslava Cardenas Sandoval, Maria Beristain Barreda, Maribel Hernandez-Rosales, Simon Dellicour, Tetyana Vasylyeva, Joel Wertheim, Santiago Avila Rios
Institutions: University College London, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Temple University, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Université Libre de Bruxelles, University of California, Irvine, University of California San Diego
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: green
Awards: Integrating spatial heterogeneity with temporal and demographic inferences, with an application to combating human rabies, Integrating Multi-Disciplinary Expertise in a Learning and Adaptive European Pandemic Preparedness System, G6022412921, G7472199847, Social network disruption, stigma, and HIV transmission and care dynamics among forcibly displaced MSM in Ukraine
OpenAlex ID: W7162505065