Characterising longitudinal patterns of education, employment, and NEET in young adulthood
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Project Overview This study investigates longitudinal patterns of education, employment, and NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) status among young people in the UK between the ages of 17 and 32, using data from two large prospective cohort studies: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and Next Steps. Background and Rationale The school-to-work transition (STWT) is an increasingly complex life stage, with post-school pathways becoming more individualised and non-linear over time. In the UK, over 13% of 16-24 year-olds were estimated to be NEET in late 2025, with associated costs to both public health and the economy. Despite a growing literature on risk factors for NEET, most existing studies treat NEET as a single, static outcome and draw on cross-sectional data, limiting their ability to capture the dynamic nature of young people's trajectories. Furthermore, few studies distinguish between NEET subtypes (such as those actively seeking work versus those who are economically inactive) despite these groups likely differing in their characteristics, experiences, and support needs. Methods Latent class analysis (LCA) is used to identify subgroups of young people who follow similar longitudinal patterns of education, employment, and NEET status across young adulthood. Separate latent class models are fitted for each cohort, with the optimal class solution determined by model fit indices, interpretability, and class size. A manual bias-adjusted three-step approach is then used to examine associations between latent class membership and a broad range of adolescent-period explanatory variables, including sociodemographic characteristics, mental health, educational engagement, substance use, and disability. Expected Outcomes We expect to identify distinct longitudinal patterns of education, employment, and NEET status, including classes characterised by persistent or recurrent NEET, early labour market entry, and graduate pathways. We anticipate that indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage, poorer mental health, lower educational engagement, and substance use in adolescence will be associated with membership of NEET-predominant classes. By distinguishing between inactive and job-seeking NEET subgroups, the study aims to shed light on whether risk factor profiles differ across these subtypes. Findings from ALSPAC and Next Steps will be compared to assess replicability across two cohorts with different sampling strategies, birth cohorts, and follow-up periods. Significance By adopting a life-course approach and utilising two complementary UK cohort datasets, this study aims to provide a more nuanced understanding of the heterogeneity of school-to-work transitions, identify which young people are most at risk of adverse trajectories, and generate evidence to support more targeted policy and intervention responses.
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7164924383