Work

Spatial Analysis of Heat-Related Illness at the District Level in the Republic of Korea Using MGWR

Year: 2026

Type: preprint

Abstract: Heat-related illness (HRI) has emerged as a major health concern in the Republic of Korea, because climate change increases the frequency and intensity of heat waves. To address the regional heterogeneity in HRI incidence, this study aimed to characterize the spatial patterns of HRI and examine district-specific associations with heat-related factors. We analyzed HRI incidence and 18 heat-related factors in 219 administrative districts in the Republic of Korea using data from 2024. Following principal component analysis (PCA) of these factors, we compared ordinary least squares, geographically weighted regression, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) models to assess spatially varying associations between the PCA-derived components and HRI incidence. The MGWR model showed the best performance (\(\:adjusted\:{R}^{2}\): 0.44, \(\:AICc\): 1604.055), thus regression coefficients from this model were compared between hotspots and coldspots identified using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Of the five PCA-derived components, Thermal Environmen t (PC1) and Social Vulnerability (PC2) were most strongly associated with HRI incidence. Focusing on these two components, hotspots exhibited a stronger association than coldspots for both Thermal Environmen t (median coefficients: 2.30 vs. 1.64) and Social Vulnerability (2.57 vs. 2.35). Furthermore, in Chungnam (G5) and Gyeongnam (G14), which included both hotspots and coldspots, Thermal Environmen t had a stronger association with HRI incidence in hotspots than in coldspots. These findings indicate that the associations between HRI incidence and heat-related factors vary across districts and provide guidelines for the development of HRI prevention strategies based on the identification of key factors and priority districts.

Source: Research Square

DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9743672/v1

Authors: Jeonghwa Seo, Minju Ryu, Yongin Choi, Hiroshi Nishiura, Hyojung Lee

Institutions: Kyungpook National University, Sungkyunkwan University, Kyoto University

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change and Health Impacts

Subfield: Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Good health and well-being, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: green

Funders: National Research Foundation, National Research Foundation of Korea