Work

Self-arresting and runaway earthquakes: Nucleation, propagation, Gutenberg-Richter law, and dragon-king events

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: We develop a dissipation-based framework for earthquake rupture on homogeneous faults that explicitly separates the onset of unstable slip from the conditions required for self-sustained rupture propagation. This distinction explains the coexistence of self-arresting earthquakes and runaway ruptures (subshear and supershear events) observed in numerical simulations and empirical studies. We identify two distinct characteristic fault sizes: a nucleation radius controlling the instability of slip, and in general a larger propagation radius controlling whether an unstable rupture can be energetically sustained. Ruptures initiated above the nucleation scale but below the propagation scale spontaneously arrest. We further derive the Gutenberg-Richter law for self-arresting earthquakes by linking rupture physics to the fractal geometry of faulting. Finally, we interpret runaway ruptures as extreme events generated by an amplifying mechanism, consistent with the dragon-king concept. These results provide a unified physical basis for earthquake initiation, arrest, and seismicity statistics.

Source: Physical review. E

DOI: 10.1103/25vd-bt4l

Authors: Didier Sornette, Xueting Wei, Xiaofei Chen

Institutions: Southern University of Science and Technology, Wuhan University

Language: English

Topic: earthquake and tectonic studies

Subfield: Geophysics

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: green

Funders: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Science, Technology and Innovation Commission of Shenzhen Municipality, Southern University of Science and Technology

Awards: G3287969314, G4209069604, G583139939, G6537101675, G777097134