Work

80 Years of research on tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone (1945–2025): a review- part C: tsunami hazard and risk assessments

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This paper constitutes Part C of a three-part review series addressing tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), with a specific focus on tsunami hazard and risk assessment methodologies. It provides a comprehensive, multidisciplinary synthesis of probabilistic and deterministic tsunami hazard assessments and associated risk analyses developed for the MSZ, integrating advances in numerical modelling techniques. Emphasis is placed on Probabilistic and Deterministic Tsunami Hazard assessments (PTHA and DTHA) frameworks, which are pivotal for quantifying uncertainties in inundation forecasts, particularly integrating historical data, paleotsunami records, and multi-scenario simulations. This review part also evaluates how improvements in source characterization, bathymetric resolution, and hydrodynamic modeling have enhanced tsunami forecasting capabilities in the region, while also highlighting persistent limitations related to offshore data scarcity and constrained observational records. In addition, spatial patterns of vulnerability and exposure across coastal communities, highlighting how socioeconomic conditions, coastal geomorphology, and infrastructure distribution interact to shape tsunami risk. Mitigation strategies, including tsunami early-warning systems, coastal land-use planning, evacuation, and emergency preparedness, are reviewed in the context of their effectiveness and applicability to the MSZ. By synthesizing the evolution of tsunami hazard and risk assessment approaches, this study offers a scientific foundation for improved coastal resilience and helps guide future research directions. The findings support disaster-risk-reduction objectives, aligning with the United Nations Sendai Framework and UNDRR Goal 2030 toward safer and more sustainable coastal communities in seismically active regions.

Source: Frontiers in Earth Science

DOI: 10.3389/feart.2026.1798551

Authors: Mouloud Hamidatou, Abdulla Almandous, Khalifa Alebri, Badr Alameri, Ali Megahed

Institutions: National Center for Meteorology, World Meteorological Organization

Language: English

Topic: Earthquake and Tsunami Effects

Subfield: Civil and Structural Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,801