Work

A review of scenario analysis tools for urban green space planning and management

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Scenario analysis can help urban green space planning respond to uncertain environmental, social, and policy futures. This systematic review analyzed 157 publications to clarify its applications in green space planning and management. We distinguished two research traditions-studies identifying urban green spaces from land use and land cover data for regional ecological planning (UGS1), and studies examining green infrastructure within built urban environments (UGS2). Using a three-stage framework of scenario analysis, we found clear differences in the geographic distribution, focal issues, scenario construction approaches, and evaluation pathways. UGS1 mainly addressed ecological security and climate-related issues, whereas UGS2 emphasized climate regulation, stormwater management, and urban environmental quality. Overall, systematic evaluation frameworks and stakeholder engagement remained limited. This review identifies five opportunities to make scenario-based green space planning more actionable and decision relevant.

Source: iScience

DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2026.116261

Authors: Xinyi Wang, Ruixia Wang

Institution: Nanjing Forestry University

Language: English

Topic: Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Sustainable cities and communities, Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,240