A value-feasibility framework for scenario prioritization across adversary resource tiers in nuclear deployment contexts
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The value of a nuclear facility as a target changes with its deployment context. This issue becomes more important as small modular reactors (SMRs) are considered for urban, remote, and industrial deployments that differ from the conventional large nuclear power plant (LNPP) model. Such potential deployment differences can change what an adversary may value and how difficult it may be to affect a target. Yet it remains unclear how these deployment-dependent changes should be reflected in security prioritization. This paper proposes a value–feasibility framework for ranking candidate targets across deployment contexts and adversary resource tiers. The framework describes each target using economic, functional, symbolic, and systemic value dimensions. It then compares these values with adversary preference profiles and adjusts the ranking using feasibility, represented by high-level barrier assumptions and resource tiers. The framework is demonstrated using stylized LNPP and SMR deployment archetypes. The demonstration shows how priority targets may change as assumed adversary resources increase. Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation assess whether these ranking patterns remain stable under uncertainty in preferences, barriers, and feasibility assumptions. The framework supports graded security planning under limited resources by making target-value and feasibility assumptions explicit, without relying only on worst-case assumptions.
Language: English
Subfield: Civil and Structural Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $200
OpenAlex ID: W7165678397