Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Spatial risk models for Lassa fever (LF) generally predict the primary reservoir, Mastomys natalensis , is restricted to rural landscapes. This study integrates multi-species biotic interactions and anthropogenic land-use into a high-resolution framework to evaluate LF’s urban potential. I implemented an Integrated Multi-Species Occupancy Model (IMSOM) to reconstruct the reservoir’s realised niche, accounting for sampling bias and invasive rodent competitors. A socio-economic filter, proxied by nighttime lights, was introduced to model the dampening effect of urban infrastructure on spillover. Annual infections were estimated using a demographic compartmental model incorporating empirical seroreversion rates. Results indicate high biological hazard across the peri-urban fringes of major West African cities. However, an infrastructure-driven socio-economic shield decouples this hazard from human incidence in dense urban cores. Accounting for spatial shielding and antibody waning yields an estimated 2.6 million annual LASV infections. Comparing predictions to clinical data reveals substantial surveillance gaps, identifying highly suitable silent districts in Nigeria, Benin, and Togo with zero reported cases. LF possesses the biological potential to become a peri-urban disease; addressing these surveillance gaps at the peri-urban interface is a critical public health priority. Key Findings Accounting for species interactions reveals that the Lassa fever reservoir (M. natalensis) exhibits high ecological tolerance for peri-urban and human-modified landscapes. Urban infrastructure acts as a socio-economic shield, decoupling biological hazard from realised human spillover in densely populated city centres. Adjusting for realistic antibody waning and urban shielding yields an estimated regional burden of 2.6 million annual Lassa virus infections. Spatial validation identifies numerous silent districts across West Africa, revealing surveillance gaps rather than an absence of biological hazard.
Source: Epidemiology and Infection
Author: David Simons
Institution: Pennsylvania State University
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,550
OpenAlex ID: W7165793085