Work

A Hybrid Deep Learning Framework for Smart Grid Stress Prediction and Adaptive Mitigation Under Extreme Weather Conditions

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Electricity systems are increasingly exposed to demand variability driven by extreme weather conditions, creating significant challenges for maintaining grid reliability and operational stability. Conventional forecasting approaches focus primarily on prediction accuracy and provide limited support for operational decision-making under dynamic conditions. This study proposes a hybrid deep learning framework for smart grid stress prediction and adaptive mitigation under extreme weather. The framework reformulates demand forecasting using residual learning. It further integrates grid stress modelling with control-oriented decision support. A sequence learning architecture with attention is employed to capture temporal demand dynamics, while a continuous Grid Stress Index (GSI) translates predictions into operational indicators of system stress. The model demonstrates stable performance on real-world UK electricity demand data, achieving a mean absolute error of 1827.51 MW and a root mean squared error of 2505.22 MW. Peak demand and ramp behaviour are captured with improved consistency, and grid stress is predicted with a mean absolute error of 0.1246. An adaptive mitigation module translates predicted stress into actionable control, resulting in approximately 5.37% peak demand reduction, with limited impact on ramp smoothing. The results demonstrate that integrating forecasting, stress modelling, and control delivers greater operational value than standalone predictive models. The proposed framework provides a scalable and practical approach for grid-aware decision support under increasing climate-driven demand uncertainty.

Source: Electricity

DOI: 10.3390/electricity7030061

Authors: Adewale Ogabi, Geetika Aggarwal, Gobind Pillai

Institution: Teesside University

Language: English

Topic: Energy Load and Power Forecasting

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Affordable and clean energy, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,207