Work

Sizing for survival: Building resilient off-grid LVDC PV-storage systems against long-return-period climate events

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The increasing severity of extreme weather events demands enhanced resilience in off-grid photovoltaic and energy storage systems. This study aims to integrate quantitative risk analysis into the system sizing process to quantify and mitigate the probability of operational failure under long-return-period weather extremes, under the hypothesis that risk-based sizing can improve reliability without disproportionate cost escalation. A surrogate model is constructed from real and synthetic performance data to efficiently explore the design space and identify a Pareto frontier of robust system configurations. A Monte Carlo simulation is then applied to a case-study building in Bilbao, evaluating 100 candidate configurations against 100 bootstrapped weather patterns, representing 120 years of historical and projected climate data. The results show that fewer than 25% of the investigated systems maintain continuous operation under the most extreme conditions considered. The most cost-effective configuration achieving 100% reliability for a 100-year return period event combines an 80% oversized photovoltaic array with a 20% undersized storage system. These findings provide actionable sizing guidelines for resilient off-grid DC systems and underscore the significant economic trade-offs associated with designing for full climatic reliability in future applications and standards development.

Source: Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments

DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2026.105166

Authors: T. Castillo-Calzadilla, A.M. Macarulla, C. Olivares-Rodríguez, C.E. Borges, E. Olías Ruiz

Institutions: Universidad de La Laguna, Universidad de Deusto, Alberto Hurtado University, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Language: English

Topic: Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

Subfield: Energy Engineering and Power Technology

Field: Energy

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Affordable and clean energy, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,610