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The Relationship Between Natural Disasters, Real Economic Growth, and Public Debt: Cross-Country Empirical Evidence

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This study aims to examine the effects of natural disaster damage and real economic growth on the general government's gross debt using empirical evidence from 48 countries. The Two-Stage System Generalised Moments (GMM) method was applied for the period 1965–2024 using five-year data. The empirical findings show that an increase in real economic growth statistically significantly reduces the general government's gross debt level. In contrast, an increase in natural disaster damage statistically significantly increases the general government's gross debt level. It was found that the first lag of the general government's gross debt had an increasing effect on the current debt level.

Source: International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21002592

Authors: AYDOĞDU BAĞCI, Semra, KESKIN, Meltem

Institution: Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University

Language: English

Topic: Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: diamond

OpenAlex ID: W7166464235

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