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Are Stroke Risk Scores Transportable to Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation? ― A Model-Based Evaluation ―

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Background: Stroke risk scores for atrial fibrillation (AF) were developed from established AF cohorts conditioned on pre-entry stroke-free status, potentially underestimating risk in newly diagnosed AF. Methods and Results: To evaluate the transportability of these scores, we calibrated frailty survival models to score-deriving cohorts and mapped stroke risks at cohort entry back to AF diagnosis. Under model assumptions, risks near 1%/year remained stable; higher risks were mapped to substantial, scenario-dependent initial levels. Conclusions: Our conceptual modeling provides theoretical reassurance for score-guided decision-making in patients with newly diagnosed AF, while suggesting a potential urgency for those at high risk.

Source: Circulation Reports

DOI: 10.1253/circrep.cr-26-0101

Authors: Tomoki Nakamizo, Munechika Misumi, Satoshi Kurisu, Nobuo Sasaki

Institutions: Radiation Effects Research Foundation, National Hospital Organization Hiroshima-Nishi Medical Center

Language: English

Topic: Atrial Fibrillation Management and Outcomes

Subfield: Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: diamond

Funders: U.S. Department of Energy, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare