A Sealed, Bitcoin-Anchored, Self-Adjudicated Forecasting Protocol: Falsifiability, Calibration, and Information Yield over a Public Corpus of Space and Geopolitical Forecasts
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: A methodology preprint describing the sealed forecast protocol behind the JYOTINT record: each forecast is published to public infrastructure (YouTube / X) before its prediction window opens; the upload timestamp plus the SHA-256 hash of the advisory form a tamper-evident seal pair; the manifest hash is anchored into the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps; and every closed forecast is graded HIT / NEAR / PARTIAL / MISS against a rubric fixed at seal time and scored with the Brier score and log loss against published reference forecasters (Tetlock GJP superforecasters, uniform-prior, always-50/50). The protocol is designed so that temporal precedence — that a forecast predated its event — is independently verifiable by any third party without trusting the operator, and so that the record cannot quietly drop its misses. This preprint documents the seal construction, the falsifiability rubric, and the calibration method. Companion dataset (the full sealed corpus): DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20630257. License: CC-BY-4.0. Operator: Vijay Jyotish, Vijay Jyotish LLC (Arizona).
Author: Jyotish, Vijay
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7166590482
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