Monetary policy discourse of the ECB and the Fed during the inflation surge
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: We compared monetary policy communications of the ECB and the Fed during Nov 2019-Jul 2024. Combining dictionary-based measures, bigram analysis, and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modeling, we documented how both institutions allocate narrative attention during the pandemic, the subsequent inflation surge, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Dictionary-based evidence shows that inflation-related language is relatively more prominent in ECB communications, whereas employment-related terminology is comparatively more prominent in FOMC communications. Topic model results reinforce this structural difference, revealing a more concentrated thematic structure in ECB minutes and a broader thematic dispersion in FOMC communications, particularly with respect to labor market and financial conditions. These patterns persist in an expanded corpus including policy statements and press conferences. The findings suggest that institutional mandates and crisis dynamics systematically shape the emphasis and framing of central bank communication.
Authors: Asif Ruman, Juha Junttila, Petri Sahlström
Institution: University of Oulu
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $2,930
OpenAlex ID: W7166592998