Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Hydrogen-silicate miscibility can significantly alter the interior structure and thermal evolution of sub-Neptunes. We consider the interplay between this miscibility and stellar-driven atmospheric escape. We find that, for the first $\sim 100$ Myr, sub-Neptunes store most of their hydrogen content within their miscible interiors, protecting it from escape. As hydrogen is removed from the top of the atmosphere, more hydrogen is exsolved from the miscible interior, resupplying the envelope mass and delaying the planet's contraction when compared with models that do not account for miscibility. We construct a population-level Bayesian hierarchical inference model which tests for the prevalence of fully miscible sub-Neptunes. With conservative measurement uncertainty and no completeness corrections, we predict that $\sim 100-200$ observed young sub-Neptunes with measured radii, masses and ages $\lesssim 1$ Gyr are required to differentiate between fully miscible and immiscible models. This survey size requirement decreases with improved measurement uncertainty. Furthermore, one can reliably infer the underlying distributions of planetary initial conditions if completeness corrections are included in the analysis.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Rogers, James G., Schlichting, Hilke E.
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Award: G4146552954
OpenAlex ID: W7166640152