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Migration as a Catalyst for High-tech Sector Growth: Armenia’s Post-2022 Natural Experiment

Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The redistribution of highly skilled labor and capital from the Russian Federation following the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022 created a unique opportunity to assess the impact of migration shocks on the development of the high-tech sector. In 2022, approximately 110,000 migrants entered the Republic of Armenia, including around 50,000 information technology specialists and nearly 2,000 relocated companies. As a result, the country’s high-tech sector experienced rapid expansion, followed by a partial decline beginning in 2024 as a portion of migrants subsequently emigrated. Conventional theories of migration economics suggest that such an outflow should lead to a proportional reduction in sectoral capacity. However, Armenia’s experience reveals a different pattern: the share of locally sourced labor continued to increase, the number of operating firms kept growing, and the sector’s gross output remained relatively stable. To explain this phenomenon, the article introduces the concept of the Selective Migrant Retention Effect, according to which migrants who are more deeply integrated into the host country’s economic and institutional environment are more likely to remain during the reverse migration phase, whereas less integrated migrants are more likely to leave. Consequently, a temporary migration inflow may generate long-term structural transformation. Treating the 2022–2025 two-sided migration shock as a natural experiment, the study integrates theoretical perspectives from migration economics, human capital theory, knowledge spillover literature, and innovation ecosystem research into a unified analytical framework. It develops testable propositions and offers policy recommendations for small open economies exposed to geopolitically induced migration shocks.
Source: ALTERNATIVE
DOI: 10.55528/18292828-2026.2-79
Language: English
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W7167663575
FWCI:
Cites: 13
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Related to: 10