Work

Labor Market Consequences of Generative AI: Early Evidence from Norway

Year: 2026

Type: report

Abstract: Does Generative AI displace early-career workers? We provide population-wide evidence from Norwegian administrative registers, 2015 through March 2025, exploiting the November 2022 release of ChatGPT as an availability shock. Using the within-firm composition difference-in-differences employed in recent work, supplemented with a synthetic difference-in-differences at the occupation level and a firm-level shift-share design, we find no robust evidence of employment displacement among young workers in highly AI-exposed occupations, nor any robust response across other age cohorts or on incumbent labor-market outcomes. While estimated coefficients for young workers are negative, in line with the existing literature, they are small and statistically insignificant. A backdating exercise on the synthetic difference-in-differences yields larger absolute estimates than the actual treatment date across most age bands. This suggests the apparent post-2022 decline reflects, at least in part, pre-existing secular trends rather than a clean AI-period break.

Source: CESifo

DOI: 10.65864/8a4auliirt

Authors: Dennis Facius, Roberto Iacono

Institution: European University Institute

Language: English

Topic: Labor market dynamics and wage inequality

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: bronze

Funder: Norges Forskningsråd