Divergent suicide mortality trends across South America, 2000–2021: a 12-country joinpoint regression analysis by sex
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Background Suicide mortality trends in South America are diverse and poorly characterized at the regional level. No study has analyzed all twelve South American countries simultaneously using a homogeneous methodology disaggregated by sex across the full 2000–2021 period. Methods Ecological time-series study using WHO Global Health Observatory age-standardized suicide mortality estimates. Log-linear joinpoint regression was applied to each country–sex stratum (36 in total) to estimate the Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals. Pandemic-period changes were assessed descriptively by examining joinpoint segments beginning in 2019 or later. The male-to-female mortality ratio was computed for each country at the start and end of the study period to describe the evolution of sex disparities. Results National trajectories were contrasting. AAPC ranged from − 2.24% (Chile) to + 3.23% (Paraguay) for both sexes combined. Joinpoint segmentation identified 71 statistically significant APC segments, revealing complex non-linear patterns. The most pronounced changes during 2019–2021 were declines in Chile (− 12.65%; p < 0.001), Argentina (− 8.61%; p = 0.003), and Bolivian women (− 19.68%; p < 0.001); no country showed a significant increase during this period. The male-to-female ratio remained high throughout (regional mean ≈ 3.8:1) but evolved divergently, narrowing where male mortality declined (Chile, Brazil) and widening in others, reaching 8:1 in Venezuela. Conclusions Suicide mortality in South America followed diverse, country-specific trajectories from 2000 to 2021, with substantial sex-specific variation. No evidence indicated a pandemic-related increase during the period observed. These descriptive findings highlight areas warranting enhanced, sex-disaggregated epidemiological surveillance, particularly in countries with rising trends such as Paraguay, Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru.
Source: BMC Public Health
Author: José Eduardo Chiriboga Varea
Institution: Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Ecuador
Language: English
Subfield: Clinical Psychology
Field: Psychology
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,290
OpenAlex ID: W7167834694