Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Hydro-dominated power systems benefit from large operational flexibility, but remain vulnerable to inflow variability. While the market integration of offshore wind has been widely studied in such systems, this study is the first to examine the role of nuclear energy as an alternative low-carbon technology in a hydro-dominated system, using Norway and the Nordic region as a case study. A stochastic fundamental market model with detailed hydropower representation is employed to compare nuclear power, offshore wind, and combined deployment strategies under alternative load growth assumptions. Both nuclear energy and offshore wind provide complementary energy contributions that alleviate seasonal hydro scarcity. Compared to the baseline case, the lowest expected reservoir level increases by 1.1 % with offshore wind, while it decreases by 0.1 % with nuclear energy. Nuclear deployment additionally reduces average power prices by 10.3 % (6.24 EUR/MWh) and price volatility, measured as the standard deviation, by 23.0 % (23.58 EUR/MWh), but lowers hydropower producer surplus by 8 % to 10 % relative to the baseline, equivalent to 373 to 473 million EUR per year. When hydropower uprating is considered, the offshore wind case utilizes 20.5 % (433.6 MW) more of the additional capacity at the 99th-percentile of hydro generation, reflecting its greater dependency on flexible hydropower. Nuclear deployment in southern Norway lowers prices across Norway and ensures more unified power prices, while a distributed deployment yields a higher societal surplus. In general, cases that add new demand as baseload, rather than scaling the historical load profile, alleviate system stress and reduce electricity price volatility.
Source: Advances in Applied Energy
Institution: Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $4,360
OpenAlex ID: W7168251711