Venezuelan Monetary Recirculation: Mechanism, Inventory, and Convergence
Year: 2026
Type: report
Abstract: This memorandum argues that the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) is positioned to recirculate its legacy banknote inventory — approximately 750 million unissued notes, about US$53 million in sunk production cost — at face value in Bolívars, as the fastest and only timely way to rebuild Venezuela's collapsed domestic cash layer. The legal mechanism rests on nominal continuity: Venezuela's currency reconversions rescaled the Bolívar but never replaced it, so a single resolution of the BCV Board suffices, with no new legislation. The thesis is falsifiable and dated: it holds that the announcement lands while the exchange rate remains inside the 600–800 Bolívars-per-dollar window — which at the pre-July velocity closed on or about 22 July 2026, and which the central bank has visibly held open, re-timing its close onto the first days of August 2026, the alternative branch the memorandum named in advance. Pre-registered falsification criteria appear in Section 5.8. The evidence base includes thirty-five archived BCV circulation snapshots (2009–2026), the reconversion legal record, field documentation of the La Parada border market, and the fourteen-year exchange-rate structure (the Chavez Trendline). Canonical English text: https://usdves.com/ — Spanish translation (all rights reserved): https://vesusd.com/
Author: Jacques-Palmer, Daemon
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W7169666533
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