WCM-PL Applied to Kīlauea Volcanic Tremor (Station WRM, HV Network) A Real But Unexplained Precursory Signal, Surviving in 5/9 Episodes
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: This paper documents an exploratory, SCREENING-mode investigation applying the WCM-PLcosD/Cell24Sensor diagnostic to real Kilauea seismic tremor across 9 eruptive episodes (episodes 42, 44-51)of the ongoing Halema'uma'u episodic fountaining eruption. Applying the epilepsy investigation's Stage-2lesson directly (an honest within-recording permutation null, skipping the uninformative marginal-shuffle nullfrom the start), a scan of the hours immediately preceding each episode's fountaining onset found a sustained,significant cosD deviation in 5 of 9 episodes (42, 44, 46, 47, 51), most strikingly a continuous 0-7/8-hourpre-onset block in episodes 47 and 51. This was NOT explained by switching seismic component (HHZ vs HHNboth agree). Four candidate explanatory variables for the episode-to-episode heterogeneity were tested posthoc and ALL FAILED honest, search-width-aware statistical testing: precursory vent identity, precursorduration (an initially promising 'Goldilocks zone' pattern at n=5 was falsified outright by 4 additional held-outepisodes), fountain height, and pre-onset tremor-pulse interval regularity (a visually striking 8/9 separationthat failed an honest permutation test, p=0.096 raw, p=0.386 after Bonferroni correction for being the 4thvariable tried). The honest conclusion: a real, non-trivial precursory signal exists in a majority of episodes, butits episode-to-episode presence/absence remains unexplained by every variable tested so far
Authors: Watabe, Masanori, Kurado, Claude Sonnet 5
Institution: Anthropic (United States)
Language: English
Subfield: Geophysics
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7169670417
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