Analysis Report on U.S. Global Strategic Logic and Structural Risks Based on the Dual Real-Virtual Field Theory
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: This report adopts the Dual Real-Virtual Field Theory as the analytical framework, with Net K (Stock Real-Virtual Deviation Degree) and C Value (Cross-Border Global Value Siphon Coefficient) as core observation indicators, to systematically reconstruct the U.S. economic strategy and global layout since Trump took office. The study shows that the U.S. domestic Net K has long exceeded the 0.618 safety red line with a deeply imbalanced real-virtual structure. For decades, U.S. economic stability has been highly dependent on a cross-border C value above 0.382, which hedges domestic risks by siphoning global real field value through the dollar cycle. In Trump’s first term, the administration prioritized an endogenous repair path, attempting to expand the domestic real field and reduce Net K through manufacturing reshoring, which ultimately failed due to industrial structural inertia and cost constraints. Since then, the U.S. strategy has fully shifted to exogenous repair: plundering global real field resources such as energy, high-end manufacturing and key minerals at different levels, in an attempt to forcibly raise the C value to delay the crisis. Driven by two major structural factors—the independent credit expansion of offshore dollars and global de-dollarization—the U.S. C value has fallen below the 0.382 golden steady-state line. Coupled with the general breakthrough of K value in global economies, the external buffer mechanism has completely failed, and the structural risks of domestic real-virtual imbalance are fully manifesting. 摘要 本报告以实虚二元场论为分析框架,以本土存量虚实背离度(K 静)、跨境全域价值虹吸系数(C 值)为核心观测指标,对特朗普执政以来美国的经济战略与全球布局进行系统性重构。研究表明:美国本土 K 静长期突破 0.618 安全红线,虚实结构深度失衡,过往数十年的经济稳定高度依赖高于 0.382 的跨境 C 值,通过美元循环虹吸全球实场价值对冲本土风险。特朗普第一任期优先选择内生修复路径,试图通过制造业回流做大本土实场、压低 K 静,最终因产业结构惯性与成本约束宣告失败。此后美国战略全面转向外生修复,通过分层掠夺全球能源、高端制造、关键矿产等实场资源,试图强行抬升 C 值以延缓危机。当前受离岸美元信用自主扩张、全球去美元化两大因素驱动,美国 C 值已跌破 0.382 黄金稳态线,叠加全球经济体 K 值普遍突破 1,外部缓冲机制彻底失效,本土虚实失衡的结构性风险正全面显性化。
Author: Liu, Zhongqiang
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7170053048
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