Work

Socioeconomic Costs of Future Wetland Methane Emissions Assessed with the PAGE-ICE Integrated Assessment Model

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane, but the socioeconomic consequences of future wetland CH4 emissions remain poorly quantified. We combined projected wetland CH4 pathways with the PAGE-ICE integrated assessment model to estimate their contributions to atmospheric CH4 concentration, radiative forcing, warming, and socioeconomic damages under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. By 2100, wetland CH4 emissions increased atmospheric CH4 concentrations by 782, 868, and 1207 ppb under the three pathways, respectively. The corresponding global warming increments were 0.190, 0.170, and 0.166 °C, showing that larger atmospheric CH4 contributions do not translate linearly into larger temperature responses. Wetland-attributable annual global damages reached 2.79, 5.91, and 6.49 trillion USD per year−1 by 2100, while discounted cumulative damages over 2020–2100 reached 79.96, 127.24, and 127.33 trillion USD under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Regionally, Africa, the Middle East, and India accounted for the largest absolute damages, whereas Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union had the highest losses relative to GDP and population. A sensitivity analysis identified transient climate response, damage-function curvature, and the pure time preference rate as the main controls on valuation uncertainty. These results indicate that projected wetland CH4 emissions can make a measurable marginal contribution to future climate damage and should be incorporated into sustainability assessments, methane-related climate-risk evaluations, and long-term adaptation planning.

Source: Sustainability

DOI: 10.3390/su18147475

Authors: Zixuan Jing, Yating Chen, Aobo Liu

Institutions: Shandong Normal University, Sun Yat-sen University

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change Policy and Economics

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,896