Work

Robust Solar Radiation Modification Strategy for Achieving Temperature Targets

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Solar radiation modification (SRM) provides an additional cooling option for limiting warming, but uncertainties about its realized cooling outcomes challenge the robustness of temperature-target strategies. This study develops an SRM decision framework that is robust in achieving the temperature target by embedding the min-max regret (MMR) rule into an integrated assessment model. We evaluate SRM strategies under uncertainty in cooling efficiency, SRM-related damages, and climate sensitivity. The results show that policies designed for adverse cooling-response states can better avoid temperature-target failure but generate great welfare losses from over-deployment. The MMR-based strategy exhibits distinct phasing, with restrained deployment before mid-century and accelerated deployment thereafter. Sensitivity analyses show that this two-phase pattern remains robust across alternative uncertainty sets. Overall, the robust framework balances the risk of temperature-target failure against the welfare cost of over-deployment under persistent uncertainties.

Source: Risk Analysis

DOI: 10.1111/risa.70312

Authors: Guo‐Liang Zheng, Jian‐Yu Wu, Tong Zhang, Hua Liao

Institutions: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing Institute of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change and Geoengineering

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Affordable and clean energy

Open Access status: green