Work

Scenario-based foresight as a framework for anticipating vulnerabilities in freshwater ecosystem services

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Lake Gahar, a vital freshwater ecosystem in Iran's Central Zagros, faces critical sustainability threats. This study applies a foresight framework to identify why previous conservation efforts have failed and what combination of actions is necessary for a sustainable future. Using a mixed-methods approach (expert panel, Delphi method, n = 16), structural analysis with MICMAC software identified six strategic macro-drivers: water pollution, overgrazing, data scarcity, insufficient funding, poor management, and lack of education. These six drivers, with 15 possible states, were modeled in Scenario Wizard software. The analysis showed an "L"-shaped stability pattern. Out of 216 possible scenarios, only 11 were highly plausible, of which 5 were desirable. Scenario No. 1 (ideal conditions for all drivers) represents the best future, while Scenario No. 11 (poor conditions for all drivers) represents the worst. The main finding is that partial solutions will not work. The real bottleneck is not lack of knowledge, but fragmented governance. Lake Gahar's future depends on simultaneous action across all six drivers. This study provides decision-makers with a practical roadmap showing where to invest first: management, funding, education, pollution control, grazing management, and data systems.

Source: Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101436

Authors: Sanaz Vahidimanesh, Ali Haghizadeh, Mahdi Solemani-Motlagh, Payam Amouzegari

Institutions: Lorestan University, University of Tehran

Language: English

Topic: Environmental Science and Water Management

Subfield: Water Science and Technology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Clean water and sanitation, Climate action, Life on land

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,350