The Wide Binary Test : A Pre-Registered Prediction of the Multi-Scale Structure Framework
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This document records a specific, quantitative, pre-registered prediction of the Multi-Scale Structure Framework (MSSF) regarding the orbital dynamics of wide binary star systems at separations of 5,000–7,000 AU. MSSF predicts a gravitational boost factor of γ = 1.26–1.44, applied unconditionally and without suppression by the galactic environment. This prediction is structurally distinct from both Newtonian gravity (γ ≈ 1.0) and MOND with the External Field Effect (γ ≈ 1.06–1.20). The three predictions do not overlap, creating a genuine three-way empirical fork. The prediction is committed to record before the release of Gaia Data Release 4 (scheduled December 2, 2026), which will provide radial-velocity screening capable of resolving the systematic contamination that has kept existing analyses in conflict. In addition to the boost magnitude, a secondary discriminator is pre-registered: MSSF predicts the boost is perfectly isotropic — independent of a pair's orientation relative to the galactic field — whereas MOND's External Field Effect necessarily imprints an orientation dependence. Explicit falsification conditions are stated: if the observed boost falls below the predicted range, or if a statistically significant orientation modulation consistent with External Field Effect geometry is detected, this formulation of MSSF is falsified or disfavored in the wide-binary domain, with no escape hatch reserved.
Author: Oliet, Eric J
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7171293833
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