An operational platform for sub-seasonal forecasts of drought-related hazards
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Ongoing climate change is increasing the occurrence of drought-related hazards with negative impacts across many areas of ecology, economy, and society, which are typically analyzed separately. The www.drought.ch/de platform informs users about the ongoing dryness situation in Switzerland with a focus on hydro-meteorological conditions. Here, we enhance this platform by implementing forecasts for the upcoming 32 days of the following drought-related hazards: runoff, soil moisture, stream water temperature, fish thermal stress, bark beetle development, forest fire, and glacier mass balance. We employ a combination of process-based and data-driven models. For these various models, we generate operational forecasts by using sub-seasonal weather forecasts as input. In addition, we leverage the advantages of using probabilistic forecasts for communicating hazard levels. Finally, we aim to provide a decision tool explained in plain language that is based on user-relevant maps of the implemented drought-related hazards. Being aware of these potential hazards from days to weeks in advance could contribute to mitigate severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts.
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7171862992