Work

The Teacher and the Test? an Analysis of the Short and Long‐Run Predictive Power of Achievement Indicators

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: ABSTRACT Test scores provide objective indicators of student achievement, but are argued to neglect certain skills. Teacher assessments, conversely, are subjective but typically designed to provide a more holistic evaluation of student potential. Combining survey and administrative data for the Netherlands, we estimate the predictive power of test scores and teacher assessments measured at age 12 across the life cycle, and analyse what this predictive power reflects. We find that the non‐overlapping predictive power of both indicators is strong. While the predictive power of the teacher assessment is partially driven by socio‐economic bias, self‐fulfilling prophecy effects and, especially, test measurement error, we find that it also captures productive skills that tests do not.

Source: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

DOI: 10.1111/obes.70117

Authors: Lex Borghans, Ron Diris, Trudie Schils

Institutions: IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Maastricht University, Leiden University

Language: English

Topic: School Choice and Performance

Subfield: Education

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Quality education

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,840