Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Achieving the Paris Agreement’s 2°C goal has generally been considered to require carbon dioxide removal (CDR); however, large-scale CDR deployment faces technical and societal challenges. Strategies to reduce reliance on CDR have mainly focused on lower energy demand and direct electrification. However, it remains unclear whether the 2°C goal can be achieved by maximizing indirect electrification without reliance on CDR. Here, we used an energy system model to assess the feasibility of such pathways. Indirect electrification is a potential enabler, but rapidly expanding renewables and electrolyzers, as well as widespread electrification and hydrogen use on the demand side, present substantial technical challenges. Furthermore, constraining CDR increases total mitigation costs by approximately 20% over the twenty-first century. These results indicate that CDR is not necessarily indispensable to achieving the 2°C goal, provided that the technical challenges of scaling up indirect electrification across the energy system can be addressed.
Source: Research Square
Institutions: Kyoto University, Hokkaido University
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Award: G1166374405
OpenAlex ID: W7171920593