Work

Dense repeated sampling reveals impaired hierarchical integration of metacognitive confidence that scales with depression

Year: 2026

Type: preprint

Abstract: Depression is consistently associated with metacognitive under-confidence in cross-sectional data. However, the temporal dynamics underlying under-confidence in depression remains unclear. We used ecological momentary assessments (EMA) to examine these dynamics and test candidate mechanisms underlying this relationship. Using a smartphone app, users completed twice-daily EMA assessments of depressive symptoms, and bi-daily assessments of a gamified metacognitive task indexing local (trial-wise) and global (block-wise) confidence. Multi-level vector autoregressive models across 162 citizen scientists (Mage=54.4 ± 11.3; 75% female) revealed higher overall between-person depression scores were associated with lower local and global confidence levels – an effect consistently observed at the individual symptom level. Within-person, depression scores significantly covaried with global, but not local, confidence, and cross-lagged analyses found no evidence for temporal precedence in either direction. Turning to mechanisms that might underlie under-confidence in depression, we found overall depression and symptoms to be associated with a diminished integration of local confidence (t-1) into future (t) global confidence (β=-0.280, 90% CrI=[-0.465, -0.096], BF10=136). Moderated mediation analyses with depression at ±1 SD showed that this was mediated by a blunted autoregression of local-confidence (ΔIndex of Moderated Mediation (IMM)=-0.310, 90% CrI=[-0.533, -0.090], FF10=95). Computational modelling further revealed a more conservative confidence criterion in individuals with higher depression and its symptoms. Together, our results present a novel mechanism for persistent under-confidence in depression: individuals with higher trait depression require more evidence to report high local confidence, while having less stable local confidence fluctuations, resulting in weaker accumulation and integration into future global confidence.

Source: eLife

DOI: 10.7554/elife.112173