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Bayesian Joint Modeling of Longitudinal Symptomatology Scale Responses and Fall Outcomes via Heterogeneous Latent Transition Analysis

Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: The Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) has followed women for over 30 years, from midlife premenopause until later life. The study has 16 surveys at approximately 2 years intervals that cover a wide range of physical and psychological symptoms. These multivariate categorical survey responses potentially contain rich health-related information. Temporal trajectories of the survey responses can be characterized by both the responses profiles and the evolving dynamics of the responses over time. To capture those two features and investigate how they inform subsequent health outcomes, we propose a joint multi-layer latent transition model. We combine a latent transition model that classifies individuals based on their response profiles over time with an additional layer of clustering of these latent class transition sequences, with the goal of connecting these cluster profiles with health outcomes: in this application, self-reported falls. In addition, we evaluate the operating characteristics of the method through simulation studies.
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2608.00898
Authors: Yu, Mingyan, Wu, Zhenke, Hood, Michelle M., Karvonen-Gutierrez, Carrie A., Bu, Fan, Elliott, Michael R.
Language: English
Open Access status: green
Funders: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, University of Michigan, National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging, National Institute of Nursing Research, Office of Research on Women's Health
Awards: G1078949291, G1090129799, G1104801629, Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) V: UCLA Site, Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) V: Chicago site, G212551621, G2137320162, G2445185886, G3185656352, Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) V: Coordinating Center, G3654623655, The Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN): The Impact of Midlife and the Menopause Transition on Health and Functioning in Early Old Age, Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) V: Central Laboratory, G4649022000, G5299499115, G5342059961, G5421556210, G5445786059, G6665133860, G6802717753, Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN V): Michigan Site, G7005230341, STUDY OF WOMEN'S HEALTH ACROSS THE NATION (SWAN) V: UC DAVIS/KAISER, G7183445854, G7907450062, G8012083396, Study of Women's Health Across the Nation(SWAN) V: Pittsburgh, G8772865444, Study of Women's Health Across the Nation - V, G987093159
OpenAlex ID: W7172401556
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