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Atrial Fibrillation Progression as an Irreversible Phase Transition: A Clinical Evidence Synthesis

Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) progresses irreversibly from paroxysmal to persistentto permanent forms. Current models describe molecular remodeling but do notexplain why progression is unidirectional and spontaneous reversion isvanishingly rare. ObjectiveTo propose and evaluate a physical framework in which AF progression representsan inertial phase transition in a network of coupled oscillators, and to testits corollary predictions against published clinical data. MethodsThree predictions were evaluated using published evidence: (1) AF progressionrates should exhibit nonlinear acceleration, (2) spontaneous reversion frompersistent AF should be rare, and (3) electrical cardioversion success shoulddecline with AF duration. Data were extracted from meta-analyses, large clinicalregistries, and observational cardioversion studies. ResultsA meta-analysis of 47 studies (n=27,266) reports progression from paroxysmal tonon-paroxysmal AF at 7.1/100 patient-years, accelerating to 18.6/100patient-years from persistent to permanent AF—a 2.6-fold increase. Spontaneousreversion from persistent AF occurs in less than 2% of patients over multi-yearfollow-up. Electrical cardioversion success declines from 76.9% (AF durationless than 3 days) to 59.8% (AF duration exceeding 3 months); AF duration is thesole independent predictor of cardioversion outcome. All three predictions aresupported. ConclusionPublished clinical data are consistent with AF progression as an irreversiblephase transition driven by progressive degradation of intercellular coupling.The framework provides a physical mechanism for "AF begets AF" and generatesspecific, falsifiable predictions testable with individual patient data.
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21900820
Author: Yu, Menggang
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7202265986
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