LAB #998 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.5% (+3.8pp, n=62) — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: NZDUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.5% (+3.8pp, n=62) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the NZDUSD LONG filter would have had no direct impact on the current trade window, as no NZDUSD trades are present in the live eToro list. The filter only blocks non-NZDUSD LONG entries, so all existing EURUSD, USDCAD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD, EURJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, and USDJPY trades would remain unaffected. The win-rate improvement from 31.6% to 35.5% is based on a small sample (n=62) and may not replicate in this specific window. No PnL delta is expected from this filter over the current trades. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the filter could modestly lift overall win rate by ~3-4 percentage points if the backtest signal holds, but the small sample size (n=62) raises risk of overfitting. The filter narrows trade opportunities, potentially reducing total trade count and total PnL even if win rate improv Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7202392239
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