Galactic Demographics, Steady-State Autonomous Probe Dynamics, and Sector Overlap Volumetrics: A Formal Bayesian Evaluation of Interstellar Exploration Architectures
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: The classical Fermi Paradox rests on idealized assumptions of exponential civilizational expansion, unbounded probe replication, and unstratified civilizational longevity. In this paper, we formulate a modernized, mathematically closed astrobiological framework integrating contemporary exoplanetary census data, bimodal civilizational longevity distributions, and steady-state autonomous probe logistics. We derive the galactic civilizational census (N_civ) and isolate the long-lived interstellar elite (N_super) by demonstrating that longevity bias causes the observable galactic population to be overwhelmingly dominated by ancient super-civilizations (L >= 10^6 yr). To resolve the energetic and material bounds of physical exploration, we model relativistic autonomous probe networks under finite hardware decay rates (mu = 1 / tau_probe), deriving the steady-state equilibrium capacity (N*) and required material replacement flux (R*). Extending this to multi-species competitive ecologies via a modified Lotka-Volterra formulation, we demonstrate that territorial partitioning and non-destructive surveillance protocols represent a stable game-theoretic attractor (Pax Automata). Finally, we establish a volumetric sector overlap metric (Omega_overlap) for the local 100-light-year stellar neighborhood and perform a rigorous comparative Bayesian model evaluation across four exploration paradigms using an eight-dimensional multi-modal sensor and physical telemetry vector. The results indicate that the Sector Jurisdiction and Regional Grid model (H_Sector-Grid, P = 54% - 60%) and the Hyper-Dense Competitive Mosaic model (H_HyperDense-Mosaic, P = 34% - 40%) achieve dominant posterior probability, whereas passive sub-light drone networks and uncorroborated subjective models are decisively disfavored by multi-modal sensor telemetry.
Author: Todor, Sebastian
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7203723745
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